AFL Round 7 Talking Points: Top four emerges in flag race; cash splash to solve ‘awkward’ Saints reality

Two big wins for the Sydney sides, and a finals-like Saturday spectacular, look to have proven there are four true contenders in 2024.

Plus the cash splash to fix St Kilda, fears Brisbane’s era has ended and much more.

The big issues from Round 7 of the 2024 AFL season analysed in Talking Points!

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HAS A CLEAR TOP FOUR FOR THE FLAG EMERGED?

It’s around this time of the season that the premiership pecking order really starts to emerge.

And while the Bulldogs of 2016 will continue to inject themselves into this conversation every year, history tells us you need to make the top four to win the flag.

So do we already have our top four in 2024?

Last year, after seven rounds the only interloper was a third-placed St Kilda. The rest of the top five – Collingwood, Melbourne, Brisbane and Port Adelaide – ended up as the top four.

Yes, Carlton and GWS made their late runs into the prelims. But the teams who were good after a couple of months of footy were still good after 24 rounds.

In fact, if you’re not good after seven rounds, we know you’re not making the top four. The last team to sit 11th or lower after Round 7 and still earn the double chance was St Kilda in 1997 (and they were in the eight, for good, after Round 8).

Helpfully in 2024, that rules out any team with a losing record – so the Bulldogs, Adelaide, Brisbane and St Kilda, plus the bottom four most expected of West Coast, Richmond, Hawthorn and North Melbourne.

But then you climb up the ladder and you can point out flaw after flaw. Collingwood’s winning streak ended in shaky fashion on ANZAC Day; Gold Coast is still too young; Fremantle can’t score enough; Essendon is Essendon. The Magpies at their best can win the flag, obviously, but we haven’t seen enough of their best this season.

The top six teams, all 5-2 or better, look like pretty certain finalists. But they’re not all the same.

Port Adelaide, for example, have well-known problems against the best. Their narrow win over Fremantle is their only victory over a current top eight side so far in 2024; they were 5-3 against the top eight last year but with a percentage under 100, with a few of those wins being very tight. Blown out by Collingwood a week ago, few will believe the Power can actually win a preliminary final until they see it happen.

Melbourne, likewise, has to vanquish the ghosts of consecutive straight sets finals exits. They’ve had some good wins, like beating Port Adelaide on the road, but looked woeful against Brisbane and not much better beating Richmond last Wednesday night. They are untrustworthy, to say the least.

Which leaves us with four teams – Geelong, Sydney, GWS and Carlton. They’re not the actual top four right now, with the Blues behind the Demons and Power on percentage, but they feel like the most likely final top four.

We’re certainly not jumping off the Blues bandwagon. They arguably should’ve beaten both the Cats and the Giants, dominating much of the play against Geelong and having an overall impressive fortnight despite a bad run of injuries. Saturday’s game felt like a final and it very much could be one; they’re a legit team.

And keep in mind that, since the middle of last year, Carlton and GWS would top the AFL form ladder. The Giants, without three of their best players in Sam Taylor, Toby Greene and Stephen Coniglio, blew away a Brisbane side that desperately needed a win in the second half last Thursday night.

Their opponents next week, Sydney, have had some shaky moments – losing to Richmond, copping a huge scare against West Coast – but since their bye have been super convincing in knocking off Gold Coast and Hawthorn. Their defence is still a little iffy and we’re keen to see how they go in the Sydney derby, but they’ll be at the pointy end, no doubt.

Oh, and then you’ve got an unbeaten team. Geelong is 7-0, and no team in the AFL era has missed the finals after being 7-0. There were doubts over them based on their opposition over the first five rounds, but beating Brisbane away and Carlton at a packed MCG – the latter without Tom Stewart, and Patrick Dangerfield for the second half – has done plenty to prove their quality.

The Cats aren’t the dominant side we saw at the back end of 2022, and that midfield will be exploitable especially without Dangerfield. They could even lose next week against Melbourne.

But they’ve got seven matches left at GMHBA Stadium. That’s at least five or six wins. Get a few more elsewhere, and you’re at 15 or 16, and that’s a top four berth.

So that looks like the four: Cats, Giants, Blues and Swans, in some order. And the great news is there are heaps of games left between the quartet – Sydney vs GWS in Round 8, Sydney vs Carlton in Round 10, Geelong vs GWS in Round 11, Sydney vs Geelong in Round 13, Carlton vs Geelong in Round 14, GWS vs Sydney in Round 15, and GWS vs Carlton in Round 17.

All seven will shape the first week of finals – and the premiership race overall.

SAINTS ARE BACK IN AN ‘AWKWARD’ REALITY. A TRADE CASH SPLASH CAN FIX IT

There’s still 16 rounds left, but you sense cashed-up St Kilda will soon face its most critical off-season in years.

Because eight rounds into the 2024 season, the Saints appear to be back in familiar territory: No man’s land.

The Saints’ 10-point loss to Port Adelaide on Friday night was their fourth by 10 points or less so far this year. In a spin-heavy post-match press conference, coach Ross Lyon said he believed his side “took a step forward” while conceding they have a lot of hard work ahead of them.

But as dual premiership Kangaroo David King told SEN’s Crunch Time on Saturday morning: “That was the greatest 10-point smashing I’ve ever seen … No matter which angle you watch that game from, Port were always winning that game.

“I think the scoreboard lies. I don’t want to hear anyone talk to me about the collective volume of how much St Kilda has lost by this year, ‘oh they’ve lost four games by a total of 23 points’ – I don’t want to hear that because that just lies to you, that result last night.”

And those comments came from a footy pundit who pre-season thought the Saints had the potential to challenge for the top four.

But after a third straight loss to take its record to 2-5, St Kilda’s chances of making the finals are now long, let alone a top-four berth.

“They’re no hope (of top four) at the moment – and then you start looking at where to from here,” King said.

“It’s tough when you’re in this situation.”

Lyon said it was “pretty clear to most experts what we’ve got to build out to compete with top-four quality”. That would surely be around generating more scores and a stronger forward-half game, as well as improving their contested possession output.

The reality, though, is that Lyon can only work with what he’s got. And what’s clear to most experts is that Lyon doesn’t have the cattle to elevate St Kilda into the upper echelon of teams.

Lyon pointed to how Port Adelaide in recent years had aimed to “win and rebuild”, adding: “That’s what we’re trying to do … win and run a dual-narrative.”

But it’s hard to rebuild on the run when you finish on the fringe of the eight consistently – which is what St Kilda did between seasons 2020 and 2023 (6th, 10th, 10th and 6th).

King said the Saints had “a better list than last year”, but added it was tough to get “multiple high-end picks or players into your organisation” when finishing mid-table so often.

“They’re stuck in an awkward situation where they’re really not good enough to take this group to the promised land and they’re too good to fall down the bottom of the tree – and he (Lyon) is too good a coach to allow that to happen because they don’t believe in rebuilds,” King said.

The Saints, to their credit, have attacked the draft hard in recent years, bringing in the likes of Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera, Mitch Owens, Marcus Windhager, Mattaes Phillipou and Darcy Wilson. All those players have shown promising signs across the past three years.

They had seven players aged 21 or under against Port Adelaide on Friday night. As Lyon said post-game: “We feel like we’ve got some youth that we’re going to continue to push through, but we know ourselves really well.”

But what the Saints do have is cap space – and lots of it, compared to other clubs in the competition.

Put simply, they need to land a big fish at season’s end. They were close to luring Jordan De Goey a couple of years ago before the star midfielder opted to stay at Collingwood.

Now is the time to strike – ideally in the midfield.

“They don’t have a midfield torchbearer. That’s what worries me,” King said.

“They don’t have ‘the guy’. (Jack) Steele’s a very good player and is as honest as the day is long, but he’s not ‘the guy’.”

The Saints have already been strongly linked to Brisbane’s Hugh McCluggage, who’s eligible for free agency at season’s end, while North Melbourne midfielder Luke Davies-Uniacke is also on St Kilda’s radar, according to rival clubs spoken to by foxfooty.com.au.

After a blistering past few seasons, Davies-Uniacke’s impact has dipped slightly at the start of 2024 amid the Kangaroos’ horrendous start. But as Fox Footy’s Gerard Healy said of Davies-Uniacke on Saturday: “When he gets going, he’s destructive with his kicking.”

Davies-Uniacke is contracted until the end of 2025 and will be a restricted free agent next year. Intriguingly, he’s reportedly put off contract talks with the Kangaroos.

Considering the ‘sameness’ of the Saints’ midfield brigade, the explosive Davies-Uniacke would be an ideal inclusion.

McCluggage’s future is more pressing, considering he’s unsigned beyond this season.

Brisbane has cap space and has reportedly offered McCluggage a six-year deal to remain in Queensland. But other clubs are offering as much as $1.3 million per season – and speculation is one of them is St Kilda.

Although the sense is McCluggage is unlikely to be wooed to a rival club, with triple premiership Lion Jonathan Brown “reasonably confident” the smooth-moving midfielder will stay.

Asked if there was “a walkaway price” for McCluggage, Brown told Fox Footy: “There probably is. I don’t think they (the Lions) are going to go to $1.3 million. Brisbane have done really well managing their salary cap and they’ll want to keep this group together. There’s going to have to be some sacrifice made for senior players.

“He’ll be well paid by Brisbane. The offer will be up there, don’t worry about that.

“I think he’s a ‘sticker’ … he’s settled well in Brisbane. I think it’s more likely he’ll stay.”

Either way, St Kilda must – and surely will – be at the forefront of the queue for Davies-Uniacke, McCluggage and some of this year’s other big trade targets.

“Until they get ‘that’ player, they’ll be here (mid-tier),” King said.

‘MIGHT BE END OF AN ERA’: BRUTAL REALITY FACING LIONS MONTHS AFTER GF HEARTBREAK

Just last September, the Brisbane Lions were four points away from tasting sweet flag glory.

Now, though, they appear in grave danger of seeing their once-wide-open premiership window slammed shut after GWS consigned Chris Fagan’s troops to a fifth loss in seven games.

After being treated to a scintillating Anzac Day draw between Essendon and Collingwood, the first half at Manuka Oval — resulting in an eight-point contest at the main change — suggested the evening game was also going to live up to its billing.

However, Adam Kingsley’s Giants piled on nine second-half goals to Brisbane’s two during what turned out to be a non-contest in the nation’s capital.

When it was put to triple All-Australian Nick Dal Santo at three quarter-time that Brisbane loomed as one of the big talking points of the next week, he told Fox Footy: “Rightly so. They came in (to the season) with high expectations, they’ve been one of the best teams for about five years – this might be the end of an era.”

The Lions lost the clearance count by four, the inside-50 count by five, the contested possession tally by 16, the uncontested possession count by a whopping 74 and registered 87 fewer disposals than GWS at a six per cent lower efficiency.

Post-game, Fagan couldn’t muster an explanation for the decreased effort shown by his players in the second half.

“First half (effort) I thought was fine, second half (was) well below par. I don’t really know the answer (to why it decreased) at this point in time,” lamented Fagan on Thursday night.

“I have no excuses, we just didn’t work as hard as they did.”

Hawthorn great Dermott Brereton questioned Brisbane’s flag credentials post-game as he analysed the beating.

“They’re very good players. They’re going to win a few, they’re going to win enough games thereabouts to make the eight,” Brereton began.

“But for the first time, is it really competitive? Josh Dunkley, Lachie Neale (had) 21 possessions for 180 metres gained. (Hugh) McCluggage got the ball in the middle (for) 26 possessions, but only five were contested — now, he’s not a beast in there.

“They looked one track-ish in the middle of the ground, and as that game wore on, they could not deal with the leg speed of the Giants coming between the two arcs pushing through the middle.

“It really looked like they were labouring a bit for leg speed.”

Three-time Richmond premiership winner Jack Riewoldt flagged the fact that the Lions were able to intercept on a number of occasions but weren’t able to translate those to scores — summarising it as a massive issue for Fagan’s brigade.

“Harris Andrews led the game in intercepts with 12 as well,” Riewoldt said during Fox Footy’s Thursday night coverage.

“Your best key defender has 12 intercepts, and you still get beat by 54 points … It’s alarming for the Lions and something needs to happen.

“Something has to change pretty fast, otherwise they (won’t) win enough games to get anywhere near the eight.”

Dal Santo noted some opportunistic upcoming fixtures for the Lions, he maintained that the premiership window doesn’t stay open “forever”.

“They’ve got some winnable games coming up,” he said. “But the facts are, this team and this particular core group have been going hard to win a premiership for four or five years now, and (been) one of the best teams. And they were a kick away from the ultimate prize last year.

“(But) it just doesn’t last forever, and it changes quickly. Sometimes it’s subtle, and then you have a quick moment of reflection thinking ‘jeez, we’re just not who we used to be’, and they’re giving the same amount of effort.

“I don’t think anyone’s questioning their effort — they’re hard at the football when they can (be). It’s just getting a different result than what they’ve had for the last four or five years, against teams that they used to beat and teams that they used to beat comfortably.

“It’s not as easy as it used to be. It’s just starting to turn a little bit for the Brisbane Lions … It’s a big month and a half coming up — this might tell the story about who the Brisbane Lions are now.”

The upcoming matches Dal Santo alluded to come against the Gold Coast Suns, Adelaide Crows, Richmond, Hawthorn, the Western Bulldogs and St Kilda.

While they might be “winnable” on paper, three of those matches will be played at The Gabba — where, incredibly, the Lions are 0-3 thus far in 2024.

FIVE-GAME FORWARD THAT’S WON OVER ONE OF AFL’S GREATEST GOALKICKERS

He’s only played five AFL games after signing a Richmond contract just over two months ago.

But Mykelti Lefau already has the next Australian Football Hall of Fame legend firmly on his bandwagon.

Lefau, 25, was signed by the Tigers as a rookie late in the pre-season supplemental selection period after impressing as part of the VFL program across the past two seasons.

He’s already kicked seven goals from five games – including 3.2 from 12 disposals and eight marks against West Coast in Round 5 – but it’s his physical presences that caught the eye of four-time premiership Hawk and legendary full-forward Jason Dunstall on Wednesday night.

While many of his teammates were sloppy with ball in-hand, Lefau impressed with his competitiveness and footy nous, booting one goal from nine disposals against Melbourne while also competing well in the ruck.

“I know they didn’t help their forwards, but can I just say from a Tigers perspective – I like the look of Lefau,” Dunstall told Fox Footy post-game.

“This is a guy that’s a competitor, he has a thirst for the contest, and he did a couple of clever things (against Melbourne). He doesn’t mind tackling or doing the hard stuff either.

“I think he’s a really good prospect going forward.”

Fellow Fox Footy pundit David King pointed out there were several occasions where Lefau was on a straight-line lead to the kicker but was ignored by his teammates – much to Dunstall’s frustration.

“He presents brilliantly and he’s giving them what they need,” Dunstall said. “I guess they’re used to ‘I see Dusty, I’ll kick it to Dusty, even if he’s not in the best position’. But I think this young man can make a real go of it.”

Lefau on Wednesday night was a rare bright spot on a tough night for the Tigers, whose season already appears all but over before May, but are contending with a lengthy injury list as well.

The Tigers have been battling to field a competitive side in recent weeks with Jayden Short (calf), Tom Lynch (hamstring), Tim Taranto (wrist), Dion Prestia (hamstring), Noah Balta (knee), Jack Ross (foot) and Josh Gibcus (knee) all unavailable and now Jacob Hopper (hamstring) set for a stint on the sidelines.

But the opportunity those big-name absentees are giving some of Richmond’s Tiger cubs has made coach Adem Yze optimistic.

“I’m envisaging six weeks’ time when we get a lot of our players back. The selection is going to be really hard based on what our young players are showing,” Yze said on Wednesday.

“They’re getting opportunity through adversity and to watch Thomson Dow today (against Melbourne) play against a quality midfield felt like he took a step forward in his career.

“Seth Campbell is getting opportunities, Maurice Rioli Jnr — he looks powerful, he looks dangerous around goals.

“So, the more that we can give those guys opportunity, which we have to right now, the future’s going to be bright for them when we get everyone back available.

“There is a silver lining the fact they’re getting an opportunity. Tom Brown is taking his game step by step.”

During a dynasty period where Richmond benefited largely from the play of its small-forward brigade, Lefau brings a bulldozing, mid-sized element to a group that hasn’t sniffed one since Josh Caddy roamed Tigerland.

Arriving at Punt Road with a rugby league background, Lefau thirsts for contact. His ability to crash packs and bring balls to ground are traits that have been held in high regard by Tigers coaching staffs of years past.

Even when Tom Lynch eventually returns, you feel that Richmond’s Kiwi-born footy convert still has a place in Yze’s best side.

NORTH JUST KEEPS GOING SOUTH

After falling in disappointing fashion to fellow struggler Hawthorn the weekend previous, many expected North Melbourne to rebound against Adelaide on Saturday afternoon — particularly at Blundstone Arena; the club’s second home in the Apple Isle.

Instead, the Kangaroos faithful were treated to another repugnant defensive product en route to a 57-point loss — another in a long, growing list of uncompetitive defeats.

North allowed the Crows 64 points from back-half chains — a figure that is double the AFL average and speaks to the side’s lack of defensive resistance.

“A couple of the numbers out of this game are extraordinary,” Hawthorn great Dermott Brereton told Fox Footy on Saturday night.

“If you allow your opponents to take 23 contested marks, it means you can’t compete in the air at this level.”

The Crows took 24 marks inside forward 50, outmuscling North’s defensive unit at every opportunity.

The club’s average losing margin in 2024 is 52 points. It begs the question: will the Roos manage a win this season?

“They’ll get a win somewhere,” Brereton told Fox Footy. “I don’t know how they’re going to do it, but they’re going to get somebody who has four or five injuries on the day.

“They’ll get a win somewhere. It might not be one of the other two bottom teams like the Eagles or the Hawks, it might be somebody else — or it could be (one of) them — but it’ll come unexpectedly.

“But it’ll need to be a perfect storm for them to win.”

Triple Richmond premiership forward Jack Riewoldt placed an emphasis on a few glaring numbers that came from the Blundstone bout.

“Adelaide had 12 goalkickers (on Saturday), and they had four other players who kicked (behinds),” Riewoldt said.

“But 16 players had a shot on goal, which is unheard of in a game like that.

“I think Alastair Clarkson would be really disappointed again with the performance today, because they didn’t look hot at all.”

At his post-game presser, Clarkson preached patience, claiming his club is in a similar spot to the one Adelaide was in “two or three years ago”.

“As a footy club … (we) stay the course and hang in there,” Clarkson said on Saturday.

“The whole footy world was up in arms about where Adelaide (was) two or three years ago, and we’re in a very similar boat.

“We’re prepared to be patient. The football world and our supporters want results quicker than this … but you’ve got to do the tough yards.”

These Roos are certainly treading the tough yards ‘Clarko’ speaks of — four of their seven defeats in 2024 have come by more than 50 points, and two by at least 70.

North Melbourne’s next month of opponents consist of St Kilda, Gold Coast (TIO Oval), Essendon and Port Adelaide (Blundstone Arena).