AFL’s new luckiest team revealed; fresh ‘top-liner’ a club can ‘build around’: Talking Pts

They’re one of the season’s surprise packets, but the truth behind Essendon is a bit concerning.

Plus the new A-grader emerging, Port Adelaide’s $10 million risk backfires and Collingwood’s looming list dilemma.

The big issues from Round 8 of the 2024 AFL season analysed in Talking Points!

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IS THIS THE AFL’S NEW LUCKIEST TEAM?

Essendon sitting fifth after eight rounds, with a better record than Carlton, Collingwood, Port Adelaide, Brisbane and many others wasn’t exactly expected.

And speaking of expected… expected score really doesn’t like the Bombers’ year so far.

Foxfooty.com.au has worked out the ‘expected score ladder’ after Round 8, based on the results that ‘should have happened’ (though it’s always worth the caveat that turning behinds into goals would change how the rest of the game played out).

For those unaware, expected score is a Champion Data statistic which analyses the average result from each scoring chance based on where it was kicked from and the pressure the player was under. A bomb from 50 metres out on a tricky angle might be worth 1 expected point (basically saying it’s a goal one-in-six times); a miss from a few metres out right in front might be worth 5.8 expected points. (These are rough numbers, not the real ones.)

The final score number isn’t what’s most important – it’s more about extracting the luck implicit in goalkicking (because it’s pretty random whether a team might kick 15.5 or 5.15 each week) and measure the quality of chances created by a team. If you underperformed on expected score, you played better than the scoreboard suggests, and vice versa – AFL coaches cite it frequently in their press conferences, showing they value the stat highly.

And so this is where we point out that, on expected score, Essendon – who in real-life sit 5-2 with a draw – are 1-7.

AFL Expected Score ladder (after Round 8)

1. Sydney Swans (7-0-1, 130.3%) [Real ladder: 1st, 7-1, 147%]

2. Port Adelaide (7-1, 133.7%) [Real ladder: 7th, 5-3, 113.1%]

3. Collingwood (5-2-1, 108.5%) [Real ladder: 9th, 4-3-1, 99%]

4. Fremantle (5-3, 115.8%) [Real ladder: 6th, 5-3, 120.6%]

5. GWS Giants (5-3, 115.3%) [Real ladder: 3rd, 6-2, 126.3%]

6. Western Bulldogs (5-3, 110.6%) [Real ladder: 11th, 3-5, 111.5%]

7. Geelong (5-3, 109.9%) [Real ladder: 2nd, 7-1, 129.5%]

8. Melbourne (5-3, 101%) [Real ladder: 4th, 6-2, 124.3%]

9. Carlton (4-1-3, 111.4%) [Real ladder: 8th, 5-3, 109.8%]

10. Brisbane Lions (4-4, 127%) [Real ladder: 13th, 3-5, 100.3%]

11. Gold Coast Suns (4-4, 100%) [Real ladder: 10th, 4-4, 95.8%]

12. St Kilda (4-4, 98.9%) [Real ladder: 14th, 3-5, 96.4%]

13. Adelaide Crows (3-5, 97.9%) [Real ladder: 12th, 3-5, 101.8%]

14. Hawthorn (3-5, 94.8%) [Real ladder: 16th, 2-6, 74.4%]

15. West Coast Eagles (3-5, 85.2%) [Real ladder: 15th, 2-6, 75.9%]

16. Essendon (1-7, 86%) [Real ladder: 5th, 5-2-1, 95.2%]

17. Richmond (0-7-1, 68.3%) [Real ladder: 17th, 1-7, 71.7%]

18. North Melbourne (0-8, 52.3%) [Real ladder: 18th, 0-8, 57.9%]

Round 8 numbers sourced from unofficial AFLxScore Twitter account, all others via Champion Data

So what exactly is happening here? Because five extra losses is a lot.

Expected score suggests Essendon should’ve lost their wins over Hawthorn (margin was 24 points), St Kilda (4 pts), the Western Bulldogs (29 pts) and West Coast (5 pts), and says Collingwood had the better of the Anzac Day draw.

The games decided by a kick seem fair enough; expected score says the Saints should’ve won by three, the Pies should’ve won by 14 and the Eagles should’ve won by 10. Close games either way, determined by a few bad kicks for the loser or a few good kicks for the winner.

But the Hawks game? Remember, that was a really weird one – the Bombers kicked 17.5 and the Hawks kicked 11.17. Brad Scott’s men kicked really straight, Sam Mitchell’s men were wayward, and that’s how you turn a real final margin of 107 def 83 into 81 loses to 95.

And the Bulldogs game? Well, keep in mind expected score only says the Dogs should’ve won by a point – but again, Essendon kicked 15.6 and they kicked 9.13. Goalkicking had a massive impact on that game.

You might say, well, the Bombers are clearly just an accurate team.

No, they’re not. They haven’t kicked more goals than behinds in almost a month. They kicked 10.18 in their tight win over Adelaide – a win they deserved, per expected score, because they generated many more chances – and rank eighth in the AFL for goalkicking accuracy.

It just so happens that in a few games, they’ve kicked more accurate than usual, while the opponent was worse. That has swung some results and made their season look a bit better than it should.

But we’re also not saying the Bombers are bad; looking at pure win-loss results from expected score is useful, but it’s still binary. Should (insert team here) have won that close game or not? Well, the answer is always more complicated than just yes or no. Expected score just gives us more information to make a more informed decision on how we view that team going forward.

And it’s not like they’re the only team who the stat helps us learn about. Geelong lost on expected score against the Bulldogs and Adelaide; those Bulldogs, plus Port Adelaide and Collingwood, are all going better than the ladder suggests.

Look at it this way – does anyone think Essendon is a better chance of winning the flag than Collingwood or Carlton? After all, they’re higher than both of those teams on the ladder. They must be a better team!

But no, nobody without a red and black scarf on thinks that. They know the Bombers have plenty of work to do, even if they’ve had a strong start to the year which will serve them well in their bid to return to September. Zach Merrett is in All-Australian form and Sam Durham has been a revelation; the defence is clearly better, too.

Stats like expected score help explain why we see Essendon in 5th on the ladder but know they’re not the 5th-best team. They make you a more educated footy analyst or fan, and only help our understanding of the game. Dismiss them at your peril.

‘TOP-LINER WAITING TO HAPPEN’: ‘NEALE-LIKE’ STAR AFL’S MOST IMPROVED… AND CROWS WILL ‘BUILD AROUND’

Adelaide desperately needed an on-baller to ignite the team after its alarming early-year slump.

Jake Soligo has delivered in spades.

For not only could he be leading Adelaide’s best and fairest count after Round 8, he’d arguably be the AFL’s most improved player to date.

Soligo on Thursday night took his breakout season to another level, winning the prestigious Showdown Medal in Adelaide’s 30-point win over Port Adelaide.

The 21-year-old was in everything across all four quarters against Port and won some big contests — especially late — on his way to 28 disposals, 15 contested possessions, 10 tackles and six clearances.

It was Soligo’s latest strong performance in a brilliant purple patch since moving into the midfield full-time in Round 5, which has seen him average 27.2 disposals, 13.0 contested possessions and 6.0 clearances since.

More importantly, Adelaide has improved from 13th to a top-eight team for points from clearances.

In an era where some corners have questioned the Crows’ drafting, Soligo — who was selected with Pick 36 in 2021 — is looming as a genuine draft bargain.

Dual premiership Kangaroo David King is an unapologetic Soligo fan, labelling him “a top-liner waiting to happen” — and comparing him to another draft-bargain-turned-star.

“He reminds me of a very young Lachie Neale … low to the ground, take the game from inside to out,” King told Fox Footy on Thursday night.

“He’s had a massive impact on their clearance game since he’s been trusted with the keys to go in. They were in all sorts at the start of the year, they’d lost all their damage, all their flare from clearance. Now the results are back to where they were last year – and then the rest of their game becomes complimented by their ability to get their hands on the ball.

“I think they need to give this guy the keys to the midfield and let him become the man.

“I’m not saying he’s going to be a Brownlow Medallist like Lachie is, but he’s that style of player where often you can go through games where you don’t notice the quality of their work, but this guy is jumping off the page.”

The Crows last year were heavily reliant on Rory Laird and Jordan Dawson at the coalface. But since the inclusions of Soligo, Josh Rachele and Izak Rankine, Adelaide has become a more ominous and potent outfit.

And the scary thing is Soligo is only 45 games into his career.

“He now looks like the one midfielder they’re going to build around,” King said.

“The mail out of Adelaide about him throughout the pre-season was really strong. They were blown away by some of the things he was doing in some of their trial games and they thought he would just hit the ground running and he would’ve been this player four weeks earlier.”

Hawthorn legend Jason Dunstall added: “They (the Crows) needed to get a bit more variety and pep and life in there – and the more you see this guy play, the more you like.

“We do have to put it in perspective. He has only played a tick over 40 games, so he’s just starting to win a good share of the ball and he’s still coming to terms with what he’s capable of doing, how aggressive he can be with the ball.”

Captain Dawson said Soligo was “as cool as they come”, but also “super competitive and so clean”.

“His ability to win the ball in traffic and break out – it’s something we’ve seen for the last year, but he hasn’t really had the opportunities in the midfield as much,” Dawson told Fox Footy post-Showdown. “This year he’s probably just starting to get the recognition from outside the four walls.

“His year so far has been huge, he’s definitely been our best player, to be honest, the whole year.”

WHO’S TO BLAME FOR PORT RISKING ‘$10 MILLION ASSET’?

Much has been made about Port Adelaide skipper Connor Rozee playing in the Showdown loss to the Crows despite going into the game underdone with a hamstring issue.

Power coach Ken Hinkley owned the “mistake” post-match, saying Rozee, who was subbed out in the third quarter, shouldn’t have played six days after his initial hamstring setback.

It’s since been confirmed Rozee didn’t worsen the injury, but the star midfielder won’t play in next Friday night’s clash against Geelong.

No matter, the gamble to play the 24-year old clearly backfired – both for the short and medium term.

So who’s really responsible for the call?

Saints legend Leigh Montagna said on Fox Footy that Rozee had to wear some of the responsibility for putting his hand up to play.

Of course, he was also cleared by doctors and medicos though and selected by Hinkley.

“The Power risked a $10 million asset in basically a hunch from Ken Hinkley. So who’s most at fault here – Ken Hinkley or the club doctor?,” Herald Sun reporter Jon Ralph posed on Fox Footy.

“Who should’ve just said ‘There is no way we’re taking a risk with our $10 million man’.”

Collingwood legend Nathan Buckley suggested the medicos were most at fault, arguing they should’ve put the decision out of anyone else’s hands, particularly given it was Rozee’s first hamstring injury.

“In the end, the first time you’ve done a hammy, he can’t know exactly how it’s going to operate and the coach is separate to it,” Buckley said on Fox Footy.

“It comes down to the medicos and conditioners to actually work out what the injury is and advise the player what he should do.

“If Rozee feels like he’s 85 per cent fit and there’s only a little bit of feeling, (he’d say): ‘I’m going to play, I put my hand up’.

“The medico needs to go: ‘No, there’s a little bit of signal there. We don’t think you’re going to get through, we’ve got to give you another week off just to be sure’.”

Buckley said the fact it was a Showdown “no doubt played a part,” adding Hinkley “probably took responsibility for his conditioning group”.

“When does a player not want to play?,” he added.

“When you haven’t had a hammy before, you think you can carry it and you think you’re OK. You need advice from people who know better.”

PIES’ TRICKY LIST CALLS ON VETERANS LOOM

With an ageing list, Collingwood faces big calls on the future of several veterans.

The Magpies have been running out a 23 each week that ranks in the top two for age and experience, with nine players aged 30 plus on their list – many of which are club greats – in a delicate balancing act for Craig McRae and the list management team.

They include Scott Pendlebury, 36 years old, Jeremy Howe and Steele Sidebottom, both 33, all of whom are out of contract at season’s end.

Herald Sun reporter Jon Ralph said Sidebottom and Howe are keen to play on in 2025, though you sense it could come down to their form and how the rejuvenated reigning premiers fare for the rest of the season.

Meanwhile Pendlebury is approaching 400 games and has an eye on Brent Harvey’s all-time record of 432 matches.

It comes as the Pies, now with four wins, three losses and a draw, have turned around their season in recent weeks, having gone undefeated since Round 2 including a huge win over arch rival Carlton last Friday night.

Regardless, the club’s overall list profile needs to be managed with a long-term lens, plus several veterans have already been rested this season.

“They’re definitely ageing,” Ralph said of Collingwood’s list on Fox Footy.

“Nine players 30 and so many performed remarkable feats in the grand final. But how they are managed and potentially exited by Craig McRae in the back-end of the season is very much going to be a talking point.

“If McRae can spark them into form, he can have discussions about potentially moving them on with a lot more dignity.

“His football boss Brenton Bolton talked last week about professional suicide at Carlton. He said: ‘I cut way too deep, too many of my veterans and I had no one there to try and school the young kids.’”

Ralph noted McRae has already “drawn some flack” after former Magpies Taylor Adams and Jack Ginnivan voiced grievances with how their exits were handled last year as the club would clearly want to avoid such friction with its beloved stalwarts.

“All eyes are on those 30-plus players,” he added.