Huge leap in top-two overhaul… and the dark horse that keeps rising: Power Rankings

Welcome back to the Power Rankings.

Last weekend was big, with a new top two thanks to some big wins against the teams at the top. This weekend, with the top eight all facing each other for just the sixth time in the top eight era, might be even bigger.

What are the Power Rankings? This is our attempt to rank every AFL club from best to worst. We take wins and losses into account, but also the quality of opposition faced and whether teams are likely to get healthier and/or improve going forward. It’s a little bit ‘who’s hot and who’s not’; part predictive, part analysis of what’s happened. If Team A is above Team B, we’d probably tip A to win if they were playing at a neutral venue this weekend.

Watch every game of every round this Toyota AFL Premiership Season LIVE with no ad-breaks during play on Kayo. New to Kayo? Start your free trial today >

All times AEST.

1. SYDNEY SWANS (7-1, 147%)

Last week: Ranked 4th, def GWS by 29 pts

They might want to try a rain dance pre-game every week, because their best two wins of the year have both come in slippery conditions at the SCG. But while they played the conditions well, reducing their use of the kick-mark game, Saturday’s comfortable win over GWS was about more than that. It was more proof their best matches up with the best, and even more importantly their midfield fired, dominating the Giants in one of their strongest areas; +16 contested possessions, +12 clearances and +25 inside 50s all being season-highs for the Swans. It’s always hard to ask a team to play its best every week, but if they play like they did last Saturday three times in September, they’ll be premiers – simple as that.

This week: Fremantle at Optus Stadium, Friday 8:30pm

2. MELBOURNE (6-2, 124.3%)

Last week: Ranked 5th, def Geelong by 8 pts

When we think of the Demons these days, we think about a low-scoring MCG night game where they waste a bunch of chances and lose to a fellow contender they probably should’ve beaten. Most of that happened on Saturday night against the unbeaten Cats… but they won. It helped that Jeremy Cameron missed those two late chances, but that’s the luck implicit in goalkicking, baby. They come into Thursday’s clash with Carlton as the AFL’s best defence at stopping scoring from stoppages – which is where the Blues shine, so it’s strength vs strength. But more importantly they’re playing in a slightly different way overall; instead of focusing on territory and inside 50s at all costs (ranked top two for inside 50 differential in 2021, 2022 and 2023, but 15th in 2024), which created low-value shots, they’re getting better chances. You’d prefer to create a few more chances as well but for now, they’re converting enough to win games.

This week: Carlton at the MCG, Thursday 7:30pm

3. GEELONG (7-1, 129.5%)

Last week: Ranked 1st, lost to Melbourne by 8 pts

The Cats just weren’t 8-0 good; maybe it’s as simple as that. They were certainly due a loss, and the Demons took advantage of the 2022 premiers’ weakened midfield and a surprisingly poor night from both Jeremy Cameron and Tom Hawkins. These things happen. But the good part about being 7-1 is the seven! Now the home games begin, with Port, GWS and Richmond coming to town over the next month, sandwiching a tricky top end trip to face Gold Coast. The combination of home ground advantage and the Cats’ pretty clear skill edge over the Suns should have them at least 10-2 and perhaps 11-1, which again sounds like too good of a record for this team as currently constituted… but maybe they are that good and we just haven’t gotten our head around it yet? After all when Zach Guthrie is playing at an All-Australian level, there’s clearly something going on that’s working.

This week: Port Adelaide at GMHBA Stadium, Friday 7:10pm

4. GWS GIANTS (6-2, 126.3%)

Last week: Ranked 2nd, lost to Sydney by 29 pts

When do we get worried about Toby Greene? After ranking as the best player at his position in the AFL on the Player Ratings last year, and 26th overall, he’s down in 29th for the position… and 239th overall. It seems absurd but he has been a below-average player in 2024. A lot of that is a major drop-off in accuracy in front of goal, which has slashed his average goals per game in half (2.8 to 1.3), so that should correct itself. But it’s one of the little things that added up against Sydney in a disappointing loss. Hopefully for their sake Tom Green is cleared for Saturday, because the Bombers’ midfield isn’t one you can take lightly these days, and while we still think overall GWS should be too good it’s a more dangerous road trip than it looked a month ago.

This week: Essendon at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 4:35pm

5. COLLINGWOOD (4-3-1, 99%)

Last week: Ranked 6th, def Carlton by 6 pts

The win over Carlton was the most Collingwood-y Collingwood have looked all year – even more than the Port smashing. AFL-best pressure (No.1 over the last five rounds), Nick Daicos doing Nick Daicos things (highest-rated player in the AFL over the last three rounds), heck even Jack Crisp starring in the midfield in a blockbuster game; that’s the Magpies we’ve seen since the middle of 2022. Their injury list is suddenly lengthy, but West Coast losing a couple of key cogs should ensure there’s no 2022-like upset, at which point the Magpies will almost certainly be back in the top eight. They’re not perfect yet but they’re clearly progressing. It’s almost a bit annoying that they don’t get another contender until King’s Birthday – though it means they should bank some wins on route, and make that game absolutely massive.

This week: West Coast at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 1pm

6. CARLTON (5-3, 109.8%)

Last week: Ranked 3rd, lost to Collingwood by 6 pts

It’s fair enough to look at the Blues, who’ve lost three of their last four (and should’ve lost four of their last five, given how the Fremantle game played out), and be a tad worried. The defence definitely isn’t up to last year’s standards right now. But two of their losses, to a much-improved Adelaide and an always-dangerous Collingwood, were by a kick in the final minutes and could’ve gone either way. These are the fine margins you’re playing with when you rely on close wins, as they did late last year and early this year. The bigger problem is their injury list; they have 1025 games’ experience missing, only Richmond (1026) has more, and only Brisbane (938) is close to the top two. It means Jacob Weitering doesn’t have enough help and the forward mix is all wrong – if their smalls aren’t hitting the scoreboard they have to apply pressure, and they just aren’t, which is hurting their turnover game. When they get those important role players back they’ll be scarier, but even now, they’re good enough to beat the Dees. Tough tip.

This week: Melbourne at the MCG, Thursday 7:30pm

7. BRISBANE LIONS (3-5, 100.3%)

Last week: Ranked 9th, def Gold Coast by 34 pts

Glass half full? They claimed a must-win game over the Suns despite the horrible injuries. Glass half empty? The horrible injuries. With five players currently sidelined with ACL tears it’s safe to say this just isn’t Brisbane’s year – after quite a few years of injury luck, where everyone talked about how good their medical staff was, they’ve come crashing back to earth all at once. It’s going to keep them from contending for the flag in 2024, because they’re not gonna win four finals especially if three or four are road games, but this can be the reset year ahead of a Geelong-like bounce-back in 2025. And hey, maybe if they pinch tricky road games like this Sunday against the Crows, they could get a home final and even go deeper into September than we’re expecting. They’re still a good footy team, that much is clear.

This week: Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, Sunday 4pm

8. FREMANTLE (5-3, 120.6%)

Last week: Ranked 10th, def Richmond by 54 pts

It was only Richmond, yes, but it was a bloody convincing win and we really rate teams winning really well. The Dockers both dominated at the source and applied heavy pressure, hitting season highs in both areas, totally controlling the game with a season-high 130 marks plus 18 inside 50 – their most in a game since 2021. So when a team plays a complete game of footy it’s hard to ignore it. Throw in Josh Treacy’s continued rise too; he has already surpassed his career-best for goals in a season, kicking 18 in eight matches. We know how much the Dockers need to do damage and having Treacy and Jye Amiss both firing, at some point, would make them that much harder to play against. Are they good enough to beat Freo, even at home? Maybe not yet, but it’s a fascinating test.

This week: Sydney at Optus Stadium, Friday 8:30pm

9. PORT ADELAIDE (5-3, 113.1%)

Last week: Ranked 7th, lost to Adelaide by 30 pts

Talking about expected score and how unlikely the end result of the Showdown was, with Adelaide kicking weirdly straight and Port kicking weirdly terribly, isn’t much solace. And understandably without Connor Rozee, potentially Charlie Dixon too and others, there’s not a whole lot of confidence from the AFL world in the Power as they head down to the Cattery. It’s not a place they’ve had much success, winless at the venue since 2007, though they’ve rarely been blown out there in recent years. The degree of difficulty won’t stop the commentary around their record against top-eight sides, assuming they lose, but a boilover win would do a lot to rebuild confidence in this team. They should still pull things together, with Hawthorn and North Melbourne to come in Rounds 10 and 11, and make the eight but you certainly wouldn’t want to start spiralling.

This week: Geelong at GMHBA Stadium, Friday 7:10pm

10. ESSENDON (5-2-1, 95.2%)

Last week: Ranked 8th, def West Coast by 6 pts

The Bombers have passed quite a few tests in recent weeks. They’ve ticked off ‘fellow mid-table side in a 50-50 game’ (def Bulldogs), ‘mid-table rival on the road’ (def Adelaide), ‘don’t wilt on the big stage’ (drew Collingwood) and now ‘show maturity and beat a bad team away’ (def West Coast). Now comes a fifth version, the ‘you’re in the top eight and an interstate contender is coming to town, this could be a semi or prelim final’. It’s a test they failed a couple of times last year, against Port Adelaide and Sydney, though both of those games were decided by a kick. They’re a better team than in 2023, with their pressure much improved over the past three weeks and their midfield earning deserved praise. We still dropped the Bombers a couple of places in this week’s rankings because they weren’t quite as convincing as others in Round 8, and we just need to see them do it again – and because as we wrote about earlier in the week, we didn’t realise just how fortunate they have been on expected score.

This week: GWS at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 4:35pm

11. ADELAIDE CROWS (3-5, 101.8%)

Last week: Ranked 14th, def Port Adelaide by 30 pts

The Crows are officially a dark horse again. The trend was their friend heading into the Showdown, suggesting they’d improved in key areas enough to be at least a mid-table threat. And while that game was bloody weird – they kicked straight from awful spots on the ground, whereas Port played as if they thought a rule change meant behinds were worth six – it was still an important and promising win. Between Opening Round and Round 4 they were bottom two for points scored, scores per inside 50 and points from turnover, plus 16th for points from their defensive half; since Round 5, they’re top-four in all four areas. Tick, tick, tick and tick. Coming from a long way back will make it very hard to get near the top four, but finals are definitely a live chance.

This week: Brisbane at Adelaide Oval, Sunday 4pm

12. WESTERN BULLDOGS (3-5, 111.5%)

Last week: Ranked 11th, lost to Hawthorn by 7 pts

Let’s leave Luke Beveridge out of it and talk to the season itself – because, in typical Bulldogs fashion, dropping a game they absolutely should not have will probably prove costly. Surely they get the job done against the injury-hit Tigers on Saturday night, but then comes a tricky block heading into their Round 15 bye. Can they beat even one or two of GWS (away), Sydney, Collingwood, Brisbane and Fremantle? Thankfully the latter four are all at Marvel Stadium, but even a 6-8 record at the bye seems a bit optimistic. And from there, they’d need to win at least six (maybe seven) of their last nine to play finals. So calling Saturday night a must-win doesn’t begin to cover it.

This week: Richmond at the MCG, Saturday 7:30pm

13. ST KILDA (3-5, 96.4%)

Last week: Ranked 12th, def North Melbourne by 38 pts

They took full advantage of the walking bye week that is 2024 North Melbourne, getting their game in shape and watching Jack Sinclair shine as a full-time midfielder. He has to remain there going forward. The Hawks can be dangerous, as we saw last Sunday, but Ross Lyon’s men really should bank another four points and ideally they’ll use this fortnight to remember how to play like a finals contender again. Liam Henry’s return is an underrated factor too, he was very impressive in his opening games as a Saint. They get his old friends Fremantle, plus Melbourne, after this one which is a big fortnight to prove where they sit.

This week: Hawthorn at UTAS Stadium, Saturday 1:45pm

14. GOLD COAST SUNS (4-4, 95.8%)

Last week: Ranked 13th, lost to Brisbane by 34 pts

We reckon the last 48 hours have been Damien Hardwick’s happiest as Gold Coast Suns coach – because he’s realised just how much he can avoid scrutiny up north, as compared to when he was coaching Richmond. They were frankly horrendous against Brisbane, looking completely unable to take advantage of a Brisbane side that had just one fit player on the bench for three quarters, and hadn’t exactly been flying coming into the Pineapple Grapple either. A few players were alright, notably Wil Powell who heavily limited Charlie Cameron’s influence while also attacking with a season-high in metres gained; but broadly speaking it was the type of pitiful loss that would’ve had most teams on the back page for days. It’s not exactly a good thing, but the combination of the Bulldogs’ bad loss hours earlier and the lack of overall interest in the Suns allowed the result to fly under the radar. So we won’t let it.

This week: North Melbourne at TIO Stadium, Saturday 7:30pm

15. WEST COAST EAGLES (2-6, 75.9%)

Last week: Ranked 15th, lost to Essendon by 6 pts

Two of the drivers of their very impressive month, Elliot Yeo and Jake Waterman, missing an otherwise intriguing trip to face an injury-hit Collingwood isn’t ideal. But at the same time it’s a chance for the younger guys, who’ve enjoyed playing alongside the in-form veterans, to take a larger role. Since Round 4 the Eagles have been the best team in the AFL at scoring from stoppages, and it’s a genuine strength at this point – not something we’ve been able to say about their midfield since… well, September 2018. Let’s see how they go against a Magpies group not exactly flying in the middle, with De Goey and Mitchell missing, and the likes of Pendlebury and Sidebottom looking close to their ages.

This week: Collingwood at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 1pm

16. HAWTHORN (2-6, 74.4%)

Last week: Ranked 17th, def Western Bulldogs by 7 pts

There it is! That’s the Hawthorn we remember from last year, doing damage to mid-table sides’ seasons and causing upsets. It’s where most expected them to be in 2024 and if that version of the Hawks is back, they can certainly beat teams like the Saints. Shout outs to Dyaln Moore, ranking 11th in the AFL in the player ratings over the last three weeks, and Josh Weddle who has done jobs on Jeremy Cameron, Ben King and Jamarra Ugle-Hagan in recent weeks holding them to a combined four goals – while also having an offensive impact.

This week: St Kilda at UTAS Stadium, Saturday 1:45pm

17. RICHMOND (1-7, 71.7%)

Last week: Ranked 16th, lost to Fremantle by 54 pts

So that was pretty damn bad – in fact, it was the worst loss vs Fremantle at the MCG for a team not named Melbourne ever. Perhaps we can’t expect them to show absolute effort every week, because it just takes so much energy to go at 100% in modern footy, but you want more than what the Tigers showed. It is frankly bizarre that Richmond is still the only team to have beaten Sydney, but obviously that was a very different group of personnel, most notably with Tom Lynch firing. As we’ve said before, it’s hard to judge Richmond on anything other than their effort levels until they reduce their injury list.

This week: Western Bulldogs at the MCG, Saturday 7:30pm

18. NORTH MELBOURNE (0-8, 57.9%)

Last week: Ranked 18th, lost to St Kilda by 38 pts

In a season devoid of much joy, let’s give a shoutout to George Wardlaw, who is quickly becoming a favourite of many of the royal blue and white persuasion. Over the past two weeks he has compiled 38 disposals, 25 contested possessions, 15 groundball gets and 15 score involvements – absolute bull areas. We’ll see how he goes against the tougher midfield of the Suns.

This week: Gold Coast at TIO Stadium, Saturday 7:30pm