Western Bulldogs great Brad Johnson thinks that the Rising Star race is incredibly even so far in 2024.
While West Coast’s Harley Reid is a clear favourite with bookmakers, Johnson isn’t sure whether the Eagle is that far ahead if at all after eight weeks.
He went through every player that’s been nominated so far and detailed how their season has panned out.
While Reid has had some astronomical highs, Johnson thinks that others have been more consistent across the season and he pondered how Rising Star judges will look at his season compared to his contemporaries so far.
“When you look across the players that have been nominated so far, so Matt Roberts was from the Sydney Swans in Opening Round,” Johnson said on SEN Sportsday.
“But throughout the first eight rounds, he's averaged 19.4 disposals, six marks and 2.5 tackles a game. His consistency over the eight weeks is something that no one is talking about. I think everyone has thought, ‘Matt Roberts, great first game, but that’s it, you’re out of the discussion’.
“Ollie Dempsey at the Cats big game had a big game in Round 1 and he's probably one that has been reasonably consistent, but I think he's had a couple of games that are a bit flatter.
“George Wardlaw at North Melbourne is averaging 17.4 disposals.
“Harvey Gallagher at the Dogs, he's had his one awesome game, he’s probably been a bit lower than the couple that we've mentioned so far. Same with Sam Darcy, his marking games are excellent, but he probably needs to get himself into 30-plus goals if he’s a realistic chance.
“Then you've got Harley Reid who had a patch of three weeks that were unbelievable, but he's also had three or four that are not so much.
“Then you’ve got Darcy Wilson from the who's been reasonably good, his last couple of weeks have been excellent.
“Jake Rogers from the Gold Coast Suns, I don’t think will win it, but he looks dynamic.
“But Caleb Windsor from the Dees, this is the thing, his numbers aren't as strong, but consistently across every game, he hasn't had a flat one, he’s been the same all the way along.”
Johnson wondered if individual brilliance would separate the top few from other contenders or if consistency would win the day.
He also considered whether players who were playing roles for top teams were doing more of a valuable job than those that are occasionally starring in bottom sides.
Johnson himself prefers consistency, picking Melbourne wingman Caleb Windsor as his leader so far ahead of Reid and Sydney’s Matt Roberts who round out his podium.
“What is going to be the separator for these players that we've just mentioned for the back half of the home and away season?” Johnson asked.
“Would you rate the season so far of Wardlaw and Reid in the bottom two teams better than Roberts and Windsor in the top couple of teams and holding their spot?
“It'll be interesting to have to pick one right now.
“Right now (my podium), I would do Windsor, then Reid, then Roberts. They would be my three.”
As things stand, Reid is rated a $1.30 chance to win the award with Sportsbet. Colby McKercher – who is yet to be nominated – is equal second alongside Wardlaw at $10. Roberts ($18) and Windsor ($23) are the sixth and seventh rated respectively.
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